Stability problems of steel structures in the presence of stochastic and fuzzy uncertainty

General ideas and problems of probability approach and its utilization in the verification of structural design procedures of EUROCODES are mentioned. The paper is aimed at the probability study of the ultimate limit state of a steel compressed member designed economically according to EUROCODE 3. The theoretical failure probability (reliability index) vs. ratio of permanent to variable load action is calculated by means of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The misalignment of the failure probability according to EN1990 is analysed. Initial imperfections are generally considered as random variables and random fields. The non-linear beam FEM is used. The influence of initial curvature shape and size variability of the member axis on the variability of load-carrying capacity is investigated. The probabilistic analysis is supplemented with the fuzzy analysis of the influence of uncertainties on the failure probability.     

电网频率变化对水轮发电机组影响及其应对措施研究

研究了电网频率变化对水轮发电机组气隙磁场过饱和、发电机中性点接地装置、阻尼绕组温升及铁心损耗的影响。提出限制发电机运行方式、接地方式等应对策略,保证水轮发电机组能在频率不稳定的电网中可靠运行,为海外工程水轮发电机组选型及运行提供参考。     

Decision support model for selection of rehabilitation methods of water mains

The deteriorating condition of water mains in Canada and US calls for rehabilitation strategies that accounts mainly for budget and level of service constraints. These water mains have received ‘D’ grade in the two countries. Decision support models can assist decision makers regarding when to rehabilitate and whether to repair, renovate or replace section(s) of water mains. The literature indicates that decision models should account for life cycle cost, uncertainty, long-term planning, targeted levels of service and budget constraints. The objectives of this paper are to: identify and group rehabilitation methods, present decision support model to rank and select most suitable rehabilitation method(s), and study the impact of rehabilitation methods on the functional and structural performance of water mains. The developed decision support model accounts for life cycle cost of each competing scenario along with the associated uncertainty. The model, unlike available models, can effectively account for vagueness, qualitative assessments and human judgment associated with input data. A case study of a water main network was analysed in order to demonstrate the use of the developed model and to illustrate its essential features. The results obtained indicate that the model can support the generation of well-informed decisions in a timely manner.     

Analysing ownership,locational and internalization advantages of Chinese construction MNCs using rough sets analysis

The rough sets analysis focusing on the ownership, locational and internalization (OLI) advantages of Chinese construction multinational corporations (MNCs) in the international market under Dunning's Eclectic Paradigm was adopted to overcome the sample size constraint in MNC research that seeks to examine the causality patterns of the factors identified. The rough sets methodology provides a solution that conventional statistical methods do not offer to ascertain how these factors are determined and their influence in the OLI analysis of the performance of Chinese construction MNCs. The rough sets approach to handling imperfect data with uncertainty and vagueness was adopted to describe dependencies between attributes, evaluate the significance of attributes and deal with inconsistencies. Based on a questionnaire survey of 31 Chinese construction MNCs, findings from the rough sets analysis suggest, among other things, that: (1) a firm is likely to perform well in terms of its ownership advantages when it has a significant advantage on its reputation and its accessibility to resources when compared with local contractors; (2) a firm may be expected to achieve better results in terms of its locational advantages if the large number of competitors from China in the host countries becomes its most important consideration; and (3) a firm that conscientiously avoids or reduces information search and business negotiation costs would tend to perform well in terms of its internalization advantages.     

Discussion of papers

This paper describes a bridge condition assessment model that is based upon the simplification of a computational technique called resolution identity of fuzzy sets. The proposed model utilizes a fuzzy weighted average to combine fuzzy bridge condition ratings. The procedure is based on the decomposition of fuzzy sets into non-fuzzy level-sets or intervals. The utility and effectiveness of this procedure are illustrated with an example of the bridge condition assessment problem.     

Time–cost optimization: using GA and fuzzy sets theory for uncertainties in cost

Uncertainties should be considered in any time–cost trade‐off problems when minimizing project cost and duration, which leads to the so‐called stochastic time–cost trade‐off problem. A new approach to investigate stochastic time–cost trade‐off problems employing fuzzy logic theory is presented. The proposed approach fully embeds the fuzzy structure of the uncertainties in total direct cost into the model. An appropriate GA is used to develop a solution to the multi‐objective fuzzy time cost model. The accepted risk level of the project manager is defined through α cut approach for which a separate Pareto front with set of non‐dominated solutions has been developed. To compare the alternative set of options for any assumed project duration, associated fuzzy costs for different values of α cut are ranked employing two appropriate approaches for fuzzy costs comparison. The proposed models are applied to solve two benchmark test problems. It is shown that the models facilitate the decision‐making process by selecting specified risk levels and employing the associated Pareto front.     

基于多色集合理论递阶系统的网络化制造资源优化配置

面向网络化制造资源优化配置,提出了一种基于多色集合理论（TPS）递阶系统的资源优化配置方法。将TPS递阶系统分为递阶关系层和递阶推理层,递阶关系层对制造任务信息、制造资源信息以及两者的匹配关系信息进行描述,并通过TPS建立统一的数学模型,递阶推理层进行数据计算和优化,借助于多色集合模糊数学模型相关表达和推理机制,利用粗集-层次分析法进行多目标决策的制造资源优化配置。最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

低碳低成本约束下箱体零件加工路线优化方法

针对箱体零件工艺设计过程中工艺路线的低碳低成本优化问题,分析了复杂箱体零件的加工特征。在加工工步排序原则和机械加工工艺路线的基础上,根据多色集理论构建了工步排序问题的“特征-工步”和“特征-面孔”围道布尔矩阵,提出了以最低总碳排放（低碳）和最低加工成本（低成本）为优化目标的机械加工工艺路线多目标优化方法,并将改进的遗传算法应用到求解工步排序的问题中,从而得到最优解。以某型号箱体零件为例,验证了所提优化方法的有效性和可行性。     

故障树分析法在某型轮式自行火炮故障诊断中的应用

某型轮式自行火炮由于服役时间短,故障数据和信息缺乏,因此难以掌握其在部队使用中的故障规律。针对这一现状,本文首先介绍了故障树分析法的原理,然后分析了该自行火炮故障的定义及分类,最后结合该装备构筑了相应的故障树,从定性和定量两个角度进行分析;实践证明：故障树分析法能从故障现象着手快速判断、分析故障原因及其逻辑关系,对某型轮式自行火炮故障的分析和定位具有较好的适用性。     

基于FG-MCGDM的水利工程施工进度方案优化

针对水利工程施工进度的多准则群决策问题,提出了一种新的模糊灰色多准则决策模型。该模型基于模糊集理论、灰色关联分析和折衷解的理论方法,将各决策属性和决策者权重的语言变量转化为梯形模糊数;采用改进的 GRA-VIKOR方法对模糊信息群体决策问题进行求解,并对各决策者的群体效益值和个体遗憾值进行聚合;通过折衷解对施工进度方案进行排序,获得最优方案。该模型有效地避免了信息的扭曲和丢失,确保了决策信息的完备性。通过在某水利工程施工进度方案优选的案例分析与计算,证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。